CARP POLL: CENSUS DEBACLE OFFENDS CONSERVATIVE “BASE” SUPPORTERS WHO CALL FOR REVERSAL OF DECISION AND FOR INDEPENDENT STATSCAN

TORONTO, ON: CARP calls on government to reverse its decision to replace the Long Form Census with a voluntary survey. CARP members polled overwhelmingly oppose the decision, do not accept the government’s claims, do not have privacy concerns with the census and claim they will punish the government at the polls if this policy is not reversed.

Click here to view overnight poll results for July 25th 2010, the day of this release.

Over 3,500 readers responded to Friday’s poll on the census in CARP’s twice-monthly e-newsletter, CARP ActionOnline, with very clear choices.

“The government should reverse its decision on the census before it does any more damage – not only to the reliability of statistical information gathered in Canada but also to its own political fortunes”, said Susan Eng, VP Advocacy for CARP.

CARP adds its voice to the growing consensus of respected economic think tanks, marketing interests and provincial governments as well as non-governmental agencies and advocacy groups like CARP which rely heavily on the data and analysis provided by Statistics Canada.

Seventy percent [70%] of older voters vote regularly and have been called by pollster Allan Gregg as “… arguably … the most important constituency for the Conservative party." [1] <#_ftn1> Virtually all respondents to the CARP poll are over the age of 55, with most over the age of 65 and they have shown a consistent preference for the Conservatives over the past two or three years. Three quarters of CARP members believe the government should reverse its decision to make the compulsory long form census a voluntary household survey, three quarters have no privacy concerns with it, two thirds do not find the long form intrusive and the vast majority believe the information the Long Form Census provides is important for Canadian decision-making.

Fully two thirds do not believe a voluntary household survey will be as valid as the compulsory long form, and, as proof, say they themselves are much less likely to complete a voluntary survey. When presented with the competing claims of Industry Minister Tony Clement and Chief Statistician Dr. Munir Sheikh, two thirds side with Dr. Sheikh, while only one-in-twenty agrees with Minister Clement. It is perhaps because of this perception that three quarters of members believe Statistics Canada should become an arms-length government agency like the Auditor General, outside Parliamentary control, to ensure no political interference.

Close to one half of those members who say they might otherwise be predisposed to vote for the government in the next election say they will not do so if the government doesn’t reverse its decision on the long form census. In illustration of this, the Conservative party has lost 10 points in voter preference since the last wave of polling, the Liberals have gained ten points, and the two are now at par. It is thought this shift in voter preference is entirely due to the census issue.

The Conservatives have lost more than 10% in voter preference in the past two weeks (54% to 43%), while the Liberals have gained a similar amount (30% to 40%), and voter preference levels are now similar to those noted in March, during the Guergis-Jaffer affair, and in January, during the prorogation issue. While seemingly improbable, this dip in support can only be attributed to the long form census issue. The polls results are attached and may be accessed at: http://www.imakenews.com/carp/ scroll down and hit “see results”.

More than 3500 CARP ActionOnline readers responded to this poll. The margin of error for a sample this size is plus or minus 1.7%, 19 times out of 20. That is, if you asked all readers of CARP ActionOnline who respond to surveys the identical questions, their responses would be within 2%, either up or down, of the results shown here, 95% of the time ?