This also shows that we need to connect the dots. Everyone, including CARP members, needs to realize that the way to get change is to make your demand an election issue.
While there is uniform approval for a list of issues related to CARP’s priorities, Conservative supporters are much less likely than supporters of the three other federal parties to think that any of the issues important to CARP should be election issues.
When asked which party leader has their interests most at heart both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May poll higher than their parties’ support, while both Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff poll lower than their parties’ support:
| Initiate comprehensive pension reform | 45% |
| Amend bankruptcy laws to give priority to pensioners | 45% |
| Moratorium on RRIF withdrawals | 42% |
| Increase CPP/OAS/GIS | 41% |
| Establish Universal Pension Plan | 39% |
| Make TFSAs retroactive for 60-plus | 33% |
| Tax/financial support for caregivers | 31% |
When asked which party leader has their interests most at heart, Ontario results closely mirror the electoral preference results, with some small differences. Both Jack Layton and Elizabeth May poll higher than their parties’ support, while both Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff poll lower than their parties’ support:
| Party | Preference | Leader Has My Interests |
| Conservative/Harper | 47% | 44% |
| Liberal/Ignatieff | 40% | 32% |
| NDP/Layton | 8% | 15% |
| Green/May | 5% | 9% |
These results demonstrate the strength of the Conservative and Liberal brands among CARP members, which are embodied in the party’s values, rather than the leader’s personality, compared with the relative weakness of the NDP and Green Party brands, where the leaders outshine the party values.
Survey results are based on more than 3000 self-selected responses from readers of CARP ActionOnline. Results are considered to be reliable within 2%, 19 times out of 20.
Pre-budget Consultation Survey August 7, 2009
CARP members are more likely than the general voter to support the Conservative party. The raw numbers demonstrate this:
| National | Ontario | |
| Conservatives | 47.7% | 47.2% |
| Liberals | 36.2% | 39.4% |
| NDP | 10.1% | 8.2% |
| Green | 5.8% | 5% |
The correction factor weighted for Ontario [*the difference between CARP’S 2008 poll and actual election results]:
| CARP poll 2008 | Election 2008 [Ontario] | Correction Factor* | |
| Conservatives | 49% | 39.2% | -20.4% |
| Liberals | 32% | 33.8% | +6.3% |
| NDP | 13% | 18.2% | +38.5% |
| Green | 6.8% | 8.0% | +14.3% |
Projections after applying the correction factor
| National | Ontario | |
| Conservatives | 36% | 37.7% |
| Liberals | 30% | 42.0% |
| NDP | 15% | 11.4% |
| Green | 5% | 5.3% |
Electoral projections for Ontario were made in the following manner:
1. CARP’s national results for the pre-2008 election poll (weighted to Ontario), were compared to actual Ontario 2008 election results
2. A correction factor for each party was derived, to bring CARP 2008 results in line with actual 2008 Ontario results
3. This correction factor was then applied to each party’s result in CARP’s 2009 poll in Ontario to yield a projected result for each party in Ontario
Keywords: seniors, election
