Was the election over before it even began?

The profile of the Conservative supporter (two thirds of our sample) is as follows:

• From the prairies (and BC)
• Older
• Male
• Retired
• Votes on economic stewardship
• Votes on both party and issue
• Will not switch parties for a preferred issue
• Will definitely vote next time

Electoral Preference
National Results

Two thirds of our members say they would vote Conservative if the election were held tomorrow (62%) and this level of support nationally has increased steadily through this summer and fall polling (please see below):

The pattern here is clear. The Conservatives started this election season with about the same level of support as they received prior to last year’s election, but have improved steadily ever since an election became imminent this summer. By contrast, the Liberals, who have polled higher among our members than their performance in last year’s election, and polled higher earlier this summer than now, have seen their approval ratings decline to the level of last year’s popular vote (26%), and this is likely driven by the fact the party had been seen to be forcing an unnecessary election.

The Conservatives are favoured especially by older members, those in the prairies and by retired males. Support is lower in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and among younger members and females.

The Liberal party is favoured especially in Quebec, among members 55 to 64 and among females. The party is especially unpopular in the Prairies.

The NDP is supported most strongly in Atlantic Canada and BC, among members 55 to 64 and among females. Support is lowest in Quebec.

The Green Party is supported most strongly among our youngest members. It is least popular in Quebec.

Ontario Projections

As CARP has few members in Quebec, projecting national results is problematic, but our Ontario sample is robust enough to permit a fairly detailed projection of Ontario election results. By deriving a correction factor which we can apply to CARP 2008 Election poll results to bring them into line with actual 2008 Ontario election results, it is possible to make some broad projections of the outcome if an election were held in the near future:

Using this correction factor, we can see that Ontario vote projections have followed the same pattern as national results:

CARP Polls comparable to Public Polls Projections are comparable to some national polling firms’ recent results for Ontario, below:

This would seem to indicate our electoral projections, for Ontario at least, are well within an acceptable range of accuracy.

Reasons for Voting For A Party

Members were presented with a list of reasons why they might vote for a particular party, and the majority said that “leadership on the economy” was the most important reason (56%), with no other reason coming close: