Was the election over before it even began?

Those who vote the issues over the party are much more likely to switch to get support for their issue:

Vote Switching Since Last Election

Members were asked for which party they had voted in the October, 2008 federal election:

Clearly, the conservatives have taken some support from the two smaller parties since the last election, but what happened to the Liberal vote? It appears to be stable, but a closer look disproves this:

Alone among the four federal parties, the Conservatives have kept their core vote since last year. The Liberals lose about one fifth of their core vote, and the NDP loses as much as one third of their core vote. Green party supporters are the least loyal, and only one half will vote for their party next time.

Among those who voted Liberal last time, one tenth have drifted to the Conservatives, and somewhat fewer to the NDP. Among NDP voters in 2008, substantial minorities will vote for the Conservatives and the Liberals next time, rather than their past party. As many as one quarter of those who voted Green last time will vote Liberal next time, and just fewer will vote Conservative. Very few will vote NDP.

The short story is that, while the Liberal party has been losing centre-right voters to the Conservatives, it has been picking up centre-left voters from the NDP and especially the Green Party. The Conservatives lead on this equation however, because they are drawing similar numbers of voters from the two smaller parties as well.

It should be pointed out that the 98% voter participation rate expressed above is extremely high, and is an indication of the depth of engagement of our members. Incidence of not voting is higher in Atlantic Canada, among the oldest members and among females.

Likelihood of Voting

When members are asked how likely they are to vote in the next election, the vast majority (89%) choose the most emphatic answer (“definitely will vote”):

Incidence of “definitely” voting is highest in BC, among members 65 to 74, among males, among Conservative supporters, among those not retired, among those who vote on the economy and among those who will not switch parties. Incidence is lower in Atlantic Canada, among the youngest members, among Green Party supporters and among those who vote on the issues.

The further left on the political spectrum a member is, the less likely they are to “definitely” vote:

Incidence of “definitely” voting is highest in BC, among members 65 to 74, among males, among Conservative supporters, among those not retired, among those who vote on the economy and among those who will not switch parties. Incidence is lower in Atlantic Canada, among the youngest members, among Green Party supporters and among those who vote on the issues.

The further left on the political spectrum a member is, the less likely they are to “definitely” vote: