January 1, 2011
The majority of members do not think there should be a federal election in the New Year, but if one is held, they favour the Conservative party (or some kind of electoral combination including the Liberals) and they think the election should be fought on issues related to income support for seniors, caregivers and those who need long term care.
Close to two thirds of members do not think Canada should have a federal election in the New Year, and the plurality are more likely to believe that Stephen Harper will avoid an election than they are to think Michael Ignatieff will provoke one.
When asked which issues were worth fighting an election over, those related to income supports and workplace guarantees for family caregivers, increases to the GIS and OAS and more funding for home care were predominant, ahead of issues like cancelling and re-tendering the F35 jet fighter contract and cancelling the planned 6% corporate tax cut. The plurality, however, say there is no reason worth an election.
The Conservatives and the Liberals have both gained back the ground they lost in the last wave of polling and both are where they have been most of the fall season, with the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals. The NDP has lost the significant bounce in support noted in the last wave of polling and are showing their customary one tenth support. In the almost certain event of a minority government, some combination which includes the Liberals draws the same level of member support as a Conservative minority.