Are we ready for the boomer tsunami?

Carl and Lorna Raskin, both in their mid-60s and still in a two-storey single in Barrhaven with a basement laundry room and other increasingly bothersome features, have been testing the housing market. They don’t plan to move for five years, but are already anxious about the limited options.

“We’re caught between a rock and a hard place,” says Carl, a retired civil servant. “We’re middle-class people and the price of bungalows is out of sight.” In Ottawa, new bungalows average $480,000, according to PMA Brethour Realty Group. During the first five months of 2012, resale bungalows averaged $350,374, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board.

The couple has looked at condos but the ones that meet their requirements would cost $12,000 a year or more in condo fees and taxes alone. Their current home is 41 years old and, they fear, wouldn’t fetch enough to let them make an even trade, let alone do the travelling they feel is among the privileges of retirement.

They could get something less expensive out of town, but with their family and friends in Ottawa, driving is a deterrent. Like most Canadians, they want to age inside their own community.

“We’ll probably end up renting,” says Lorna resignedly.

The situation is already much more threatening for those without good pensions or other financial resources.

CARP (originally the Canadian Association of Retired Persons; now billed as A New Vision of Aging for Canada) makes that clear in its recent report, A New Vision for Aging at Home. It references CMHC figures showing the cost of seniors’ housing in Canada is $1,909 a month for an average, market-priced bachelor suite or room that includes light care such as at least one meal a day.

The median annual income of a single Canadian senior, CARP reports, is $20,800. That’s a shortfall of $3,000 a year on rent and light care alone.

The average annual cost in a private facility providing heavier care is $42,360.

In Ottawa, according to A Portrait of Ottawa Older Adults, 6.8 per cent of seniors were considered low income in 2006. Low income is defined as an after-tax income of $21,384 for a family of two and $17,570 for someone on their own. In Canada, seven per cent of seniors are in the low-income bracket. However, in Ottawa, the proportion of low-income seniors jumps to more than 18 per cent for singles. That’s because it’s not that much more expensive for two people to live than one.

Although men are catching up, women still outlive them. That can leave elderly women in a vulnerable position when it comes to housing.

Ottawa Community Housing does offer subsidized housing to about 95 per cent of the 3,400 households in its 21 seniors-only buildings. About two-thirds of those households are headed by women. There are another 1,600 units headed by seniors in mixed-demographic buildings. OCH defines “senior” as being 60 and older and says the wait period for the seniors-only buildings is two to five years; the waiting period is longer for the non-restricted buildings.

“Seniors run into financial problems because they didn’t plan to live to be 90 or 100,” says Christina O’Neil, executive director of Unitarian House, a not-for-profit residence for independent seniors off Richmond Road. “My message to politicians is: ‘Recognize that affordability is an issue for seniors and in the future it’s going to be bigger.’ ”

Interwoven with all this is a clogged public health system that’s traditionally been poorly integrated with home support services for the elderly. That integration is slowly taking place and should lead to seniors remaining independent and healthy longer, easing the burden on health and other tax dollars.

“There’s a lack of one-stop agencies for all services and you won’t find an agency that provides all the services free of charge,” says Margaret Dunn, chair of the City of Ottawa Seniors Advisory Committee, which assists the municipality and community in identifying and meeting the needs of seniors.

In fact, CMHC’s annual national housing report released last December says the number of all seniors living in institutions will grow to almost 2.5 times the current level. That’s a lot of new buildings.